S&P 500 Continues Ascent on Weak Employment Data, While Iran-US Strait of Hormuz Negotiations Determine Global Trade Direction.

Top Headlines

1. S&P 500 continued its ascent, reaching new highs as weak US employment data reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes.
2. Negotiations between Iran and the US for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continue, maintaining uncertainties over global energy and trade routes.
3. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their best week since April, with over $1 billion in inflows, signaling increasing institutional interest in the crypto market.

Summary

Despite the Crypto Fear & Greed Index residing in the 'Fear' zone at 30, overall market sentiment indicates a robust rally in US equities. The S&P 500 reached record levels as weak employment data eased expectations for Fed rate hikes, with technology stocks leading the market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and threats to energy supply security complicate the macro outlook.

Macro & Geopolitics

US 10-year Treasury yields retreated to %4.66, marking a 0.21% daily decline with a 1.0 basis point movement. 2-year Treasury yields fell to %3.96, a sharp 4.55% daily drop, declining by 18.9 basis points. This movement indicates a notable flattening of the yield curve, strengthening market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Derivatives pricing suggests, expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 remain elevated.

On the geopolitical front, negotiations between Iran and the US for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing; Iran expects concessions, while the US indicates a deal is close. Iran also stated there is no need to fear the Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia security pact. In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu deemed Trump's new Gaza plan unacceptable, while Houthi rebels in Yemen continue their attacks on refineries and Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Russia and Syria reached an agreement on the future of the Tartus and Hmeymim bases; Russia struck fuel storage facilities in Ukrainian ports, and mutual attacks between the two countries persist. The US Senate approved sanctions against Russia. China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand, while the US is implementing new trade measures against China's solar energy supply chain. Futures and event markets reflect, various expectations for significant geopolitical events such as China's potential invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 and Ukraine's possibility of reclaiming Crimea.

Equities

US equities, particularly the S&P 500, resumed their ascent after a brief July dip, rallying as weak US employment data reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes. Our indicator signals BUY (11.33) within a Trend Regime, featuring a 5.6/10 Momentum Strength. The S&P 500 is exhibiting a strong uptrend at $7,757.64, approaching the $7,793.68 resistance. JPMorgan strategists raised their S&P 500 target, while the Nasdaq Composite reportedly displayed a movement seen only 18 times since 1971. Apple CEO Tim Cook predicted a '100-year flood' in memory chip prices, while Jim Cramer claimed Wall Street is fleeing the AI trade. Tesla is investing billions in its battery, solar, and energy businesses. Interest in Broadcom continues to grow with demand for AI infrastructure.

Commodities

In the gold market, Our indicator signals BUY (4.1) within a Trend Regime, featuring a 4.8/10 Momentum Strength. Gold is exhibiting a lateral/neutral trend at $4,394.10, trading near the $4,421.50 resistance. WTI Crude Oil is showing a downward trend at $79.37, while Middle East tensions and uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape energy market sentiment.

Digital Assets & Crypto

In the crypto market, Bitcoin price reached its August peak of $65.3 thousand as weak US employment data cooled Fed rate hike expectations. Our indicator signals BUY (3.48) within a Lateral Consolidation Regime, featuring a 0.7/10 Momentum Strength. Bitcoin is exhibiting a lateral/neutral trend at $64,955.03, moving towards the $66,694.65 resistance. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their best week since April, with over $1 billion in inflows. Swedish H100 tripled its Bitcoin holdings with the purchase of 2.455 BTC, becoming Europe's second-largest Bitcoin treasury. UK regulators are preparing a framework for tokenized gold, while the US Senate will vote in September to advance the CLARITY Act. The IMF states that local stablecoins could increase demand for dollar-backed tokens.

Strategic Asset Allocation

1. Capital Inflow / Strong Sectors & Assets
2. Technology Stocks (Supported by AI infrastructure demand and strong earnings reports.)
3. US Spot Bitcoin ETFs (Increased institutional inflows and improving market sentiment.)
4. High Risk / Underperforming / Liquidation Targets
5. Oil Markets (High volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply security uncertainties.)
6. Certain AI-Focused Stocks (Jim Cramer's claims of Wall Street fleeing the AI trade and overvaluation concerns.)

Disclaimer: This intelligence brief is for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.