US Jobs Report Shapes Fed's Rate Path, Iran-Oman Crypto Agreement Initiates a New Era in Global Trade.

US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.67%, reshaping market expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Top Headlines

1. US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.67%, while 2-year yields declined to 3.96%, reshaping market expectations for Fed rate cuts.
2. A rapprochement between Iran and Oman on an agreement involving crypto payments for shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping global trade dynamics.
3. Expectations for the July US jobs report are increasing uncertainty regarding the Fed's rate path, with markets closely monitoring macroeconomic signals.

Summary

Markets are adopting a cautious stance, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index positioned in the 'Fear' zone at 29. Macroeconomic uncertainties ahead of the US jobs report and geopolitical developments in the Middle East are suppressing investor risk appetite, while selective activity in the technology and defense sectors is noteworthy.

Macro & Geopolitics

US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.67%, marking a 5.3 basis point movement with a 1.15% daily increase, while 2-year yields declined to 3.96%, experiencing an 18.9 basis point drop with a 4.55% decrease. This indicates continued partial flattening of the yield curve and complicated market expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy actions. Ahead of the July jobs report, derivatives pricing suggests weakening expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, while uncertainty persists regarding the likelihood of a recession in the US economy by the end of 2026. On the geopolitical front, a potential agreement between Iran and Oman involving crypto payments for shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz signals a new era in global trade and energy markets. A joint defense agreement is expected to be signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan amidst regional turmoil, while tensions along the US-Iran axis and Trump's comments on an Iran war are being closely monitored.

Equities

For the S&P 500, our indicator signals BUY (10.65) within a Trend Regime, featuring a 4.9/10 Momentum Strength. The market is exhibiting volatile movements ahead of the July jobs report, while strong performances from major software companies like Cloudflare are supporting the technology sector. Michael Burry's comments that large tech companies' AI expenditures are dragging down the S&P 500, and uncertainties regarding Apple's AI strategy, highlight the divergence within the sector. Conversely, defense technology startups like Hadrian reaching multi-billion dollar valuations indicate increasing interest and investment flows into this area.

Commodities

For Gold, our indicator signals BUY (4.31) within a Trend Regime, featuring a 5.1/10 Momentum Strength. Gold continues to be supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, while WTI crude oil prices are trading sideways due to Iran-Oman talks and supply tensions in the Red Sea. Oil markets are carefully assessing the potential agreement in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy flows.

Digital Assets & Crypto

For Bitcoin, our indicator signals BUY (1.48) within a Lateral Consolidation Regime, featuring a 0.9/10 Momentum Strength. The crypto market is grappling with security concerns as the theft of over $100 million from a Coldcard wallet pushed July losses to $247 million. Despite this, inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue, with discussions ongoing about whether this trend is related to a shift away from self-custody following the Coldcard hack. A potential agreement between Iran and Oman involving crypto payments has the potential to increase the role of digital assets in international trade. The postponement of the CLARITY Act vote in the US Senate until September maintains regulatory uncertainty, while Russia's new crypto law, set to take effect in 2026, is shaping the global regulatory framework.

Strategic Asset Allocation

1. Capital Inflow / Strong Sectors & Assets
2. Defense Technologies
3. Cloud and Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure
4. Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA)
5. High Risk / Underperforming / Liquidation Targets
6. Overvalued Artificial Intelligence Stocks
7. Digital Fitness Platforms
8. Crypto Self-Custody Solutions (Due to Security Vulnerabilities)

Disclaimer: This intelligence brief is for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.